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MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC (MANH)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Manhattan Associates delivered a solid Q3: revenue $275.8M (+3% YoY), adjusted EPS $1.36 (+1% YoY), and adjusted operating margin 37.5%, with 21% cloud revenue growth and better‑than‑expected services timing; GAAP EPS was $0.96 as a higher tax rate weighed on GAAP results .
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) reached $2.08B (+23% YoY) with strong win rates (~70%); management expects to finish 2025 at the high end of the RPO outlook and continues to target ~20% cloud growth in 2026 .
- FY25 guidance was raised across revenue ($1.073–$1.077B), adjusted operating margin (35.5%–35.7%), adjusted EPS ($4.95–$4.97), and GAAP EPS ($3.43–$3.45); Q4 revenue midpoint trimmed by ~$3M on hardware/services timing .
- Results beat S&P Global consensus: revenue $275.8M vs. $271.6M* and EPS $1.36 vs. $1.19*; upside drivers included cloud strength and ~$2M services pulled forward from Q4, partly offset by tax headwinds on GAAP EPS .
- Strategic updates: Agentic AI entered early access across products (GA early 2026), a fixed‑fee/time conversion program accelerated on‑prem to cloud migrations, and a new COO (ex‑Microsoft FastTrack) was appointed to scale conversions/renewals/partners; FedRAMP authorization with FEMA strengthens public sector positioning .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Cloud momentum: “Solid demand drove cloud revenue growth of 21%” with total revenue $275.8M and adjusted EPS $1.36; adjusted operating income rose to $103.4M .
- RPO/bookings and pipeline quality: RPO up 23% YoY to ~$2.08B; win rates ~70%; conversions and cross‑sell strengthened bookings breadth across industries .
- Strategic execution: Agentic AI early access now live across warehouse, transportation, store, and contact center; initial agents deploy “in minutes, not months,” with GA targeted for early 2026 .
- Public sector credibility: FedRAMP authorization with FEMA enhances secure cloud offering differentiation for U.S. government agencies .
- Leadership capacity: Appointment of Greg Betz as COO to scale conversions, renewals and partner model (global SIs, specialists, technology partners) .
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What Went Wrong
- Services softness YoY: Services revenue declined to $133.0M from $137.0M YoY as budget constraints shifted work, although ~$2M pulled into Q3 from Q4 aided the quarter .
- GAAP EPS pressure: GAAP diluted EPS fell to $0.96 (from $1.03) due to a higher tax rate driven by U.S. R&D tax law changes, even as adjusted metrics improved; management cited ~$20M OCF benefit in Q3 and ~$15M expected in Q4 from lower cash taxes .
- New logo seasonality: Net new logos were ~17% of new cloud bookings in Q3 given seasonality and large‑deal lumpiness, though year‑to‑date new logos are ~50% of new cloud bookings and pipeline remains healthy .
Financial Results
Estimates vs. Actuals (S&P Global):
- Revenue: $271.6M* estimate vs. $275.8M actual — beat .
- EPS (Adjusted/Primary): $1.19* estimate vs. $1.36 actual — beat.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment Revenue by Geography ($M)
KPIs and Cash Metrics
Notes: CFO highlighted free cash flow margin of 32% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 38% in Q3 .
Guidance Changes
Management also signaled Q4 revenue of ~$264M, ~33% adjusted operating margin, and ~$1.11 adjusted EPS based on the revised FY targets and intra‑quarter timing shifts (hardware/services) .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Manhattan delivered record third quarter and year‑to‑date results. Solid demand drove cloud revenue growth of 21% and better than expected services revenue generation in the quarter.” — Eric Clark, President & CEO .
- “RPO increased 23% year over year to $2.1 billion. Win rates remained very strong at 70%... Q4 is off to a solid start… we expect to achieve toward the high end of our full‑year 2025 RPO outlook.” — Eric Clark .
- “Adjusted operating profit was $103 million with an adjusted operating margin of 37.5%… higher tax rate is due to an increase in tax reserves caused by the acceleration of our domestic R&D cost deductions… benefited Q3 operating cash flow by approximately $20 million and will likely benefit Q4 by about $15 million.” — CFO Dennis Story .
- “We launched a dedicated renewal team… and a conversion program… offering fixed‑fee, fixed‑timeline conversion to Active Warehouse… very quickly turned into about 30 new pipeline deals.” — Eric Clark .
- “We are investing in Agentic AI across all of our Manhattan Active solutions… early access program… we will move to general availability… in early 2026.” — Eric Clark .
Q&A Highlights
- RPO outlook and renewals: Management is confident in RPO trajectory into 2026, citing a major renewal cycle over the next 18 months that will “re‑up” current RPO as contracts renew at larger scale .
- Conversions strategy: Fixed‑fee/time offers to targeted cohorts (initially ~100 warehouse customers) are converting into pipeline and wins; similar playbook expanding to TMS and to accelerate DC rollouts, with automation and AI supporting repeatability and margin discipline .
- Services recovery: Services upside partly reflected execution and ~$2M timing pull‑in from Q4; backlog and pipeline are building, supporting a return to growth in 2026 .
- Agentic AI monetization and margins: Early access feedback strong; agents deploy rapidly within native platform; pricing details to come on Q4 call; management intends to preserve cloud margins with no dilution .
- 2026 guardrails: Management expects 20% cloud revenue growth, services to grow, and 50–75 bps adjusted operating margin expansion in 2026 (ex‑license/maintenance attrition), with consensus viewed as generally appropriate .
Estimates Context
- Consensus (S&P Global) vs. Actual (Q3 2025): Revenue $271.6M* vs. $275.8M (beat); EPS $1.19* vs. $1.36 (beat). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implications: Modest top‑line beat driven by 21% cloud growth and services timing; GAAP tax headwind explains gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS trends, while cash tax deferral boosted OCF .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Cloud engine intact: Sustained >20% cloud growth and a deepening conversion program underpin multi‑year subscription compounding; management reiterated 20% cloud growth for 2026 .
- Bookings durability: RPO up 23% YoY to ~$2.08B with high win rates and a large renewal cycle ahead; management aims for the high end of 2025 RPO guidance (ex‑FX) .
- Profitability discipline: Adjusted operating margin reached 37.5% in Q3; FY25 adjusted margin raised to 35.5%–35.7%, with 2026 margin expansion of 50–75 bps expected despite growth investments .
- AI as a conversion and cross‑sell catalyst: Agentic AI early access is live across multiple workflows with GA in early 2026; embedded agents and Foundry position MANH to monetize productivity gains without margin dilution .
- Services inflection in sight: Near‑term variability remains, but backlog/pipeline and conversion/DC rollout programs support a return to services growth in 2026 .
- Public sector vector: FedRAMP authorization with FEMA expands the TAM in government and reinforces MANH’s security credentials across verticals .
- Near‑term trading: Raised FY25 guide and beats on revenue/adjusted EPS are positives; watch Q4 revenue mix (hardware/services timing) and GAAP tax effects vs. favorable cash tax dynamics supporting cash flow .
Footnote on estimates: Items marked with * are consensus values. Values retrieved from S&P Global.